Math 9314: Into the Trenches

Two hard-fought conference victories later, Duke sits atop the ACC as the only undefeated team. Despite trailing throughout the first half against both Virginia and Clemson, the Blue Devils were able to rally and overcome the adversity they faced. As Duke continues to grind out close victories and its top non-conference foes continue to win and rise in the rankings, the Blue Devils’ strength of schedule this year continues to look even more remarkable. Let’s take a look back at Duke’s past two victories using our motion chart and advanced metrics and see what the box scores from these games did not tell you:

Mason put his running hook to the test against Virginia (photo courtesy of DukeBluePlanet)

Virginia:
Duke was able to eek out a close win against Virginia, but its safe to say that they were letting the Cavaliers play their game. Virginia slowed down the tempo of the game and kept the pace steady in half-court sets, and it showed for Duke statistically. The Blue Devils’ 61 points accounted for Duke’s lowest scoring output of the year, and it was just the first time all year they had won a game when scoring fewer than 68 points. The highest GameScore for Duke against Virginia was a mere 8.6 for Mason Plumlee, who shot an efficient 5-of-6 from the field but left quite a few points at the foul line, shooting just 2-for-10 on the game. With 12 points, Plumlee was Duke’s leading scorer, accounting for the lowest point total for Duke’s leading scorer since Tom Emma and Vince Taylor led the way with 12 apiece in a Duke loss to Maryland on January 9, 1982 in Mike Krzyzewski’s second year as the Blue Devils’ head coach. The final score of the game was 40-36. Duke scored 10 points in the second half. However, Duke’s consistency showed through against Virginia, with four players scoring in double figures the GameScores were reasonably consistent. Six of the eight Duke players that saw the floor against Virginia had GameScores between 5.1 and 8.6. It wasn’t pretty, but it was definitely a team effort out there.

You'd probably find this picture in the dictionary under "swag". (photo courtesy of DukeBluePlanet)

Clemson:
Although it took a little time to get started up, Duke returned to its usual form in a 73-66 win over Clemson. Andre Dawkins led the way for the Blue Devils with 24 points on 7-of-12 shooting, including 5-for-9 from behind the arc. With a tremendous GameScore of 20.0, this was the first time Dawkins had scored above 6.9 in a game in nearly a full month. The last time he accomplished that was in Duke’s win over UNC-Greensboro on December 19. But while Dawkins success was quite visible through his scoring output, some might argue that he was nearly overshadowed by the play of Miles Plumlee. Miles scored just six points, but pulled down 14 rebounds, six of them on the offensive end, in just 23 minutes. This accounted for an Oreb% of 29.81%, which statistically speaking is practically off the charts. As he continues to come on strong in the midst of his senior year, Miles can’t help but remind us of another Duke player from not too long ago. And in case you don’t remember, things turned out quite wellfor that team. Meanwhile, against Clemson Mason Plumlee played his usual Mason Plumlee game, scoring 12 points and adding seven rebounds on just an 18.55% Usage%. Mason’s performance was good for a GameScore of 9.8 as he continues to show consistency on the offensive end.

Can you say "dunk face"? (photo courtesy of DukeBluePlanet)

What We Learned:
Andre Dawkins is back in an upswing-After struggling for most of December and the beginning of January to the point where he often looked invisible on the floor, Dawkins is beginning to find his form again. After playing what Coach K called “his best defensive performance of the season” against Virginia, Dre exploded against Clemson in one of those classic “Andre Dawkins can’t miss a shot” games. Dawkins is playing some of the quality basketball we saw from him in the early part of the season, and at this point we just hope he can keep it up. He has the potential to be one of the greatest weapons in the ACC off the bench.

This team continues to fade in and out, but at some point it just has to click- It seems as though every player on this team has gone through its fair share of ups and downs this season with the exception of Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly. Though that is not ideal, it is good to see who is stepping up at this point in the season. The beginning of the season was all about Seth Curry and Ryan Kelly and then Austin Rivers began to take over in December, but now with Seth and Austin struggling Miles Plumlee, Quinn Cook, and Andre Dawkins are picking up their slack. You have to think that sometime soon Rivers and Curry will get back on top of their games, and if everyone else can continue to produce this team has the potential to be very scary down the stretch.

Math 9314: Conference Play Gets Underway

As we enter the new year, January brings us many things. It brings us hopes and dreams, resolutions both kept and unkept, and college basketball. Lots of college basketball. January marks the beginning of conference play, where the intensity ramps up and every game is a test for a team’s NCAA tournament resumè. The young Blue Devils seemed like they weren’t quite ready for this transition, enduring two difficult road games in the past week. As we know, Duke was upset by Temple in Philadelphia but rebounded in its ACC-opener with a hard-fought victory over Georgia Tech in Atlanta. Let’s take a quick look behind the numbers using our advanced metrics and see what that box scores from these games did not tell you:

Temple:
This game was all about the brothers Plumlee, but it was Miles, not Mason, who got it going early and often for Duke. Miles poured in 17 points on 8-of-11 shooting in just 19 minutes for his most productive game of the season. Miles’s GameScore of 16.6 was his season-high and was only outdone by younger brother Mason, who posted a GameScore of 18.2. Though he struggled early, Mason finally got it going down the stretch and finished with 16 points on 7-of-13 from the floor. But Mason’s biggest contribution was on the glass, posting an Oreb% of 30.17% and leading Duke with seven offensive rebounds. This means that when Mason was on the floor and Duke put up a shot, he would pull in an offensive rebound on 30.17% of these rebounding opportunities. Miles added three more offensive rebounds and recorded an Oreb% of 21.78% on the game. Unfortunately, other than the Plumlees’ performance, it was Terrible, Terrible, Terrible at Temple. Our advanced metrics actually reveal to us that Duke’s performance against Temple was even worse than it looked. The Blue Devils next highest GameScore came from freshman Michael Gbinije with 5.7- keep in mind that Gbinije only played eight minutes in the game. Gbinije was productive when he was on the floor, knocking down both of his shots for five points. After Mason Plumlee, the next highest GameScore from a Duke starter was Austin Rivers’ 3.5, thanks to his 12 points on 3-of-11 shooting. Rounding out Duke’s starting lineup was a 3.1 GameScore from Ryan Kelly, a 2.8 from Seth Curry, and a whopping 0.3 from Tyler Thornton. At risk of making myself (and I’m sure many readers) physically ill from these statistics, I’m going to slowly back away from the Temple game and pretend it never happened. But rest assured, when your team has three players with efficiency ratings over 3.5 and one of them played just eight minutes, yeah you’re in trouble. With this bad a performance, it’s surprising that Duke only lost by five points and actually had a chance to win this game.

Kelly's 21 points was his highest scoring effort this season (photo courtesy of DukeBluePlanet)

Georgia Tech:
Duke’s hard-fought victory on the road against Georgia Tech served as a small step in the right direction. The Blue Devils were paced by Ryan Kelly, who scored 21 points on just four shots from the floor, posting an impressive GameScore of 20.9. Kelly’s GameScore was the highest posted by a Duke player since Quinn Cook’s21.8 against Western Michigan. Kelly’s Usage% of 20.94% was hardly indicative of his role in Duke’s half-court sets, however, as 14 of the 18 shots he took on the day came from the foul line. Mason Plumlee added another solid game, achieving a GameScore of 12.5 thanks to his nine points and eight rebounds. Curry added 15 points but was hardly efficient in doing so, taking 12 shots from the floor and posting a Usage% of 31.11%. His high usage reflected poorly in his GameScore of 8.7. In his first career start, Quinn Cook recorded a respectable GameScore of 7.5 thanks to his 10 points and five assists. Tyler Thornton, who was replaced by Cook in the starting lineup, had posted a GameScore above 7.5 on just one occasion in his six starts. Thornton’s GameScore was just 2.9 against Georgia Tech.

Mason's consistency might be the most surprising of his improvements this year (photo courtesy of DukeBluePlanet)

What We Learned:
Mason Plumlee is a workhorse— This is something that most of us already knew, but his consistency has been a great surprise this year. Plumlee has posted GameScores above 10 in eight of his last nine games. He finds ways to be a productive contributor even when he is not scoring, averaging 10.1 rebounds per game over that stretch. The Plumlees have had a history of showing flashes of brilliance but being dreadfully inconsistent, but it appears they are finally beginning to break that mold. Mason’s GameScores of 12.5 and 18.2 in the Blue Devils two most recent games, games in which the team did not play particularly well, shows that he is becoming a player Duke can rely on to produce night in and night out.

Rivers has struggled in Duke's past three games and has forced some tough shots (photo courtesy of DukeBluePlanet)

Austin Rivers is struggling once again– Scoring just 20 points on 6-of-21 shooting in his last two games combined, Rivers is just not feeling it out there. We are seeing glimpses of November’s Austin Riverswho would drive the lane and force tough shots. He also hasn’t had his usual shooting touch from beyond the arc as of late, shooting just 2-of-8 from deep in Duke’s past three games. Rivers’ GameScores have been 3.9, 3.5, and 3.3 in the Blue Devils last three contests against Pennsylvania, Temple, and Georgia Tech respectively. These are his lowest totals since Duke faced Kansas in the final of the Maui Invitational six weeks ago. This seems to be the latest in a series of ups and downs this season for Rivers, but there doesn’t seem to be a larger issue here. It simply appears he’s been a bit off his game. We hope he’s due for a breakout performance very soon, especially with a tough Virginia team coming to Cameron for Duke’s ACC home opener on January 12th.

Georgia Tech was a great test for Duke, who will have to grind out many more close games in tough environments as the conference schedule continues. Hopefully the Blue Devils continue to make the right adjustments moving forward. Stay Crazie, my friends.

Later this week, Crazie Talk will have its first-ever mailbag where our writers answer Duke basketball questions submitted by our readers. Have any thoughts or questions? Submit them to us by sending them to crazietalk@gmail.com or tweet them @crazietalker with hashtag #askCT.

Math 9314: Another Day at the Office

Another week, another two victories for Duke. Putting their difficulties against Ohio State behind them, it was business as usual for the Blue Devils in non-conference matchups last week, easily dispatching of Colorado State in Cameron and Washington at Madison Square Garden (aka Cameron North). Let’s take a quick look behind the numbers using our advanced metrics and see what the box scores from these games did not tell you:

Miles Plumlee recorded 14 points against Washington, matching his brother Mason (photo courtesy of DukeBluePlanet)

Colorado State:
This game was pure and utter Duke domination from start to finish, as the Blue Devils shot 56.4% from the floor, their highest clip this season against an opponent that wasn’t named Presbyterian College. Mason Plumlee poured in one of the best all-around statistical performances of this season, posting 14 points, 10 rebounds, five blocks, and four steals on 6-of-7 shooting. What is most remarkable about this stat line is that he was able to achieve such a high efficiency rating with only a 22.6 Usage%, which clearly shows that he was not demanding the ball on offense but made the most of his opportunities. His GameScore of 20.9 marks the second-highest efficiency rating by a Duke player this season, and the highest since the Blue Devils’ last game at the Garden. We all remember that game as the day when Andre Dawkins played the game of his life, pouring in 26 points against Michigan State to give Coach K career victory number 903. Speaking of Dawkins, his GameScore of 11.7 does not completely tell the tale, as he added 15 points in his new role off the bench on 6-of-8 shooting, including 3-of-5 from beyond the arc in just 12 minutes on the floor. Meanwhile, Miles Plumlee took a step out of his younger brother’s shadow and took on a greater offensive role, scoring 14 points while adding five points and three blocks en route to a season-high GameScore of 16.1.

Ryan Kelly rebounded from consecutive subpar offensive performance against Washington (photo courtesy of DukeBluePlanet)

Washington:
Against a young and athletic Huskies team, the Blue Devils were able to maintain control throughout and hold of a late run to secure an 86-80 victory that was not nearly as close as the score indicates. Ryan Kelly recovered from consecutive rough games to put up a team-high GameScore of 13.6 as a result of 16 points, eight rebounds, three steals, and two blocks. Kelly and Miles Plumlee controlled the offensive glass, posting OReb% of 17.7 and 13.1, respectively as Duke held a rare rebounding advantage over the Huskies. Who knows if it’s the NBA three-point line of maybe if it’s just the soothing aroma of ridiculously overpriced contracts that will never buy the New York Knicks a championship, but Andre Dawkins loves playing at Madison Square Garden. Dawkins posted another solid GameScore of 12.1 thanks to an effort of 17 points off the bench, while Miles Plumlee did not miss a shot from the field and recorded his second consecutive double-digit game score. Fun fact for all you stat junkies out there, since November 22nd Miles has shot 82% from the free-throw line (he shot 59% from the line last year). Mason Plumlee turned in a typical 12 points and nine rebounds, but only shot 2-for-11 from the free throw line, which is reflected in his 10.6 GameScore.

What We Learned:
Andre Dawkins and Miles Plumlee are here to play—Both Dawkins and Plumlee found themselves in the starting lineup for the season-opener and have since been relegated to roles off the bench. They have also both responded to this change extremely well in the past week, as each put up two of their better offensive performances of the season. Dawkins, who has stayed true to his streaky nature, looks as though he is just starting to heat up and find a more consistent stroke. Miles, who had a very promising preseason tour in China, fell out of touch at the beginning of the year but is finally beginning to assert himself as an offensive presence down low. Expect to see both of them playing significant minutes off the bench as long as their improved play continues.

Josh Hairston's minutes might be in jeopardy as Coach K seems to be thinning out his rotation (photo courtesy of DukeBluePlanet)

This team’s rotation is shrinking—Although Duke’s victory of Colorado State showcased 10 Blue Devils playing 10 minutes or more, the Washington game was a very different story. Krzyzewski’s rotation was significantly shorter against the Huskies, as it was essentially limited to seven players. My apologies to Josh Hairston and Michael Gbinije, but this should be the trend moving forward into conference play. Quinn Cook will see increased minutes as he continues rehabbing from his injured knee, and in all honesty should have seen more time against Washington while Tyler Thornton struggled offensively and the Huskies rallied in the second half. Otherwise expect to see a more compact rotation of Cook along with Austin Rivers, Seth Curry, Ryan Kelly, Miles and Mason Plumlee, and Andre Dawkins. Hairston will more likely be seen as the team’s emergency big man in case the team gets into foul trouble or one of their bigs is getting absolutely lit up on defense. Gbinije has shown signs of improvement but while most likely take on the role of a situational player as he continues to develop during his freshman season.

Thanks for bearing with us slightly falling out of touch during finals week, I promise there will be lots more exciting content coming in the next few days, including the beginning of our comprehensive team-by-team ACC preview. As always, stay Crazie, my friends.

Math 9314: O-h…Oh No

We all know what happened in Columbus last week. After three thrilling wins in Maui, Duke suffered a major letdown against a surefire national title contender. Ohio State utilized their home court advantage to the fullest, gaining momentum early and exploiting Duke’s weaknesses en route to a convincing win. Funny how much of a factor the three keys I mentioned in my preview column played into last week’s outcome. Just in case you missed the game or are willing to relive the demoralizing experience, it’s that time of the week to take a look back at our favorite Blue Devils’ performance (or lack thereof) using advanced metrics, which can be viewed on our fancy shmancy motion chart.

Let’s take a look at last week’s game beyond the box score:

It seems like every week there are always a few players whose GameScores hover around zero or even slightly in the negatives—this is not uncommon. Typically these are players that played very few minutes in the game and may have missed their only shot attempt, but not this week. If you take a look at the players located in the bottom left hand corner of our chart (for all intents and purposes we’ll call this “The Zafirovski Zone”), you’ll be shocked to see three Duke starters with negative GameScores. In fact, four out of the top seven in the Duke rotation—Andre Dawkins, Ryan Kelly, Seth Curry, and Tyler Thornton—could not record positive GameScores last week. They were essentially nonfactors in this game, playing a combined 68 minutes against Ohio State, as compared to a combined 127 minutes in Duke’s Maui Championship victory over Kansas. The group shot a combined 3-13 from the field and will need to make vast improvements as Duke looks to get back on track.

On the other hand, while many of Duke’s starters struggled, the Blue Devils were able to get positive production from players that often reside deeper in their rotation. Note: by positive I mean “greater than zero”, though their outputs were positive they all still registered below 6.6. Miles Plumlee, Josh Hairston, Michael Gbinije, and Quinn Cook all ended up outside of The Zafirovski Zone this week, each playing significant minutes down the stretch with the game out of reach. They did provide some bright spots, however. Cook added four points and four assists in just 14 minutes and Hairston played his usual physical defense while shooting a perfect 3-for-3 from the field.

Austin Rivers sweeps in for a layup, two of his 22 points against Ohio State (photo courtesy of DukeBluePlanet)

Austin Rivers and Mason Plumlee were essentially Duke’s only two efficient offensive options against the Buckeyes. Rivers’ GameScore of 12.1 was his second highest this season as he poured in a career-high 22 points on 8-of-18 shooting. Although he was receiving little-to-no support, Rivers looked like a dangerous offensive weapon for much of the game, knifing through the defense and attacking the rim for easy buckets. Mason, who had the toughest task of any Duke player in guarding Preseason All-American and Naismith candidate Jared Sullinger, was able to fight off early foul trouble to contribute 16 points and eight rebounds. His final GameScore was only 10.9 as he committed four turnovers and three personal fouls, but he continued to assert himself with his improved low post game.

Unfortunately, there has not been much discussion of effective field goal percentage (eFG%) in this post, simply because other than the few players that made their only two or three shots, we did not have much of an eFG% to speak of. This is puzzling because Duke finished shooting 47.3% from the floor from the game, which is better than they shot in the Maui final against Kansas. However, Duke had a low eFG% because they only shot 3-of-15 from beyond the arc, and the eFG% formula weights three-point shots higher than field goals.

Ultimately GameScores are meant to take into account all of the positive and negative aspects of a player’s performance and measure of the amount of points you contributed to your team. This tells the tale of the Ohio State matchup for the Blue Devils, whose combined team score was a mere 36.2. We can only hope that a tough week at practice helped the team regain focus, and we can be almost certain that you’ll see some changes Wednesday night against Colorado State. Be on the lookout tomorrow morning for our game preview of that matchup. Until then, stay Crazie, my friends.

Math 9314: Volunteering An Explanation

Note: If you need a refresher about what all this advanced metric mumbo jumbo really means, see yesterday’s post to turn yourself into an all-knowing wizard of basketball statistics.

Let’s take a look at yesterday’s 77-67 victory over Tennessee, shall we? On the motion chart below, you currently see GameScores on the x-axis, the eFG% on the y-axis, and the size of each player’s bubble is determined by his Usage% from last night’s game. Press the ‘play’ button or scroll to the right to observe metrics from last night’s win. With this motion chart you can see all four metrics charted against one another in whatever manner you’d like for every game Duke has played this season. You can also isolate each individual player to track his performance. The first thing that jumps out at you upon examination of the metrics from the Tennessee game is where the bubbles are positioned on the chart. Unlike a much more statistically efficient game against Davidson, Duke only registered three players with GameScores above 10 last night. Only Austin Rivers, Seth Curry, and Ryan Kelly were able to break double digits. However, you will also notice that despite the low GameScores, six out of the nine Blue Devils that played last night had above a 40% eFG%. This indicates that despite the fact that Duke shot well (48.1% from the field and 38.9% from 3-point range), the Blue Devils were extremely inefficient thanks to sloppy offensive execution, 13 turnovers, and 18 team fouls.

Upon examining individual performances from last night, some interesting trends arise.

Austin Rivers nails a floater against Tennessee (photo courtesy of DukeBluePlanet)

Look Past The Scoring
Austin Rivers sticks out like a sore thumb. Although he was able to turn around a rough start to finish with a team-high 18 points, Rivers only registered the third highest GameScore on the team with 10 (the definition of average in terms of GameScore). Meanwhile, his 39% Usage% was a team-high as well, besting his next closest competitor, Quinn Cook, by 14%. This means that while Austin was on the floor, he accounted for 39% of his team’s shots. Although a Usage % this high would not be uncommon for an elite player, Rivers has yet to play like one. 14.2 points per game along with 40.4% shooting from the floor and 68.0% free throw shooting are not perfect numbers, and don’t warrant 39% of the possession. Rivers has shown flashes of brilliance this season, especially in the second half of last night’s game, but needs to become more efficient in his play. If he wants to take his game to the next level, he’ll need to slow down his thought process and break out of his tunnel vision. Sometimes splitting double teams and taking on big men is not his best option. Duke will take his scoring production, but not at the cost of 6/15 shooting. For more on Rivers, check out Sebastian Pruiti’s most recent article for Grantland for some excellent analysis.

No Surprise
After showing what he can do during the stretch run of ACC play last season, Seth Curry has been the Blue Devils’ greatest scoring threat, and is doing so in an efficient manner. His 12.9 GameScore was second on the team against Tennessee, and he was able to do so with a 55% eFG% and only a 22% Usage%. Over the team’s five games, Curry has registered a low GameScore of 10.2 with a high of 20.6 against Michigan State, all the while shooting with an eFG% above 54% in each contest. Meanwhile, his Usage% has been considerably lower than Rivers’, and has been less than 23% in four of Duke’s five contests. Though last night was not Curry’s best statistical performance of the season, the Blue Devils will take 17 points and four assists on 5/10 shooting from Seth any day. They’ll just consider his 1 of 4 shooting from beyond the arc an anomaly.

Ryan Kelly pulls up for three in the Blue Devils' victory over Tennessee (photo courtesy of DukeBluePlanet)

Duke’s Unsung Hero
Curry and Rivers have received much of the credit for Duke’s early season success, but arguably Duke’s most consistent player this season has been junior Ryan Kelly. In five games this year Kelly has posted GameScores between 9.4 and 15 each time, while registering above a 58% eFG% and below a 24% Usage% in four of his five games this year. Kelly has been a consistent scoring threat, and his promotion into the starting lineup in place of Miles Plumlee, whose play has been lackluster this season, was well deserved. Ryan’s 17 points and six rebounds on 5/9 shooting in just 27 minutes last night earned him a GameScore of 14 to go along with his 67% eFG%. This earned him the title of Duke’s most efficient player and second most efficient shooter in their victory over the Volunteers.

A Blast From The Past?
All advanced metrics aside, this year’s Duke team appears to be a significantly more talented version of the 2007-08 Blue Devils, who fell in the second round of the NCAA tournament to West Virginia. Much like the current Duke team, the ‘07-08 team had only one senior and a crop of juniors to lead a relatively inexperienced squad. The team also struggled with an identity crisis throughout the year, failing to recognize who their star was and scoring by committee. Both the ’07 team and today’s Blue Devils had five players averaging double figures in scoring, and it was unclear who would lead the team on a given night. However the main difference we see between these teams is that the 2007 team’s roster didn’t have players that could single-handedly take over games. DeMarcus Nelson, Greg Paulus, and Gerald Henderson along with Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith, and Jon Scheyer in their early years were never going to put the team on their back and carry them to victory. However, Curry, Rivers, and Andre Dawkins have proven this year that they can score in bunches and Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee have provided some much needed consistency inside that Duke teams have not had since Shelden Williams roamed the paint in Cameron.

We hope this look behind the box score has been an enlightening one, and look forward to bringing you more data as the season presses onwards. Be on the lookout for our live blog of the Maui Invitational semifinals against 15th ranked Michigan later this evening along with game and statistical recaps tomorrow. Stay Crazie, my friends.

Math 9314: An Introduction to Statistics in Basketball

At the start of this season, all-knowing college basketball statistician Ken Pomeroy announced that he’d be requiring a subscription fee to access his incredible database. While this was greatly disappointing to many a college basketball fan, we at Crazie Talk decided that this was as good a time of any to start doing some statistical analysis of our own, specifically focusing on Duke and Duke’s opponents.

Using Basketball Reference, In-The-Game.org, and Pomeroy’s own resources, we decided to focus in on four different metrics – game score, effective field goal percentage, offensive rebounding percentage, and usage percentage.

Let’s start with the game score, which is computed via the formula below.

The game score is a basic efficiency rating, devised by NBA stats guru John Hollinger. It is designed to be applied to single games and is scaled relative to points scored. Scores above 20 are considered to be excellent, while scores below 10 are average. Four games into this season – only two Duke players have posted game scores above 20 – Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins, both against Michigan State.

The next metric is the first of basketball statistician Dean Oliver’s “Four Factors of Basketball Success” – effective field goal percentage. eFG% essentially combines two-point and three-point shots, giving a simple evaluation of how well a player shoots the basketball. This can be computed as follows:

According to Dr. Oliver, effective field goal percentage is the most important factor contributing to whether a team will win a game. Obviously, a team that has a bevy of effective scorers will put themselves in the best possible situation to win. Thus far, Ryan Kelly leads the team in eFG% with a whopping 75.72% over four games. For a historical perspective, the Duke all-time leader in eFG% was Carlos Boozer, who posted a 63.1% over his three years in Durham. Last year, Andre Dawkins led the team with a 63.5% mark, which was one of the best in the nation.

Offensive rebounding percentage is the second of Dr. Oliver’s “Four Factors” and can be computed with the following formula:

Offensive rebounding rate is a metric to measure how many extra possessions a team can convert from missed shots. Obviously, Duke fans understand the importance of offensive rebounding – as Brian Zoubek averaged a ridiculous 7.8 offensive rebounds per 40 minutes on the way to the 2010 National Championship. This was well documented during Duke’s 2010 run, as the Devils struggled to shoot well but consistently put points on the board and won games. Miles Plumlee currently leads the team in this category with a 21.19% mark. It will be interesting to see if Duke’s three headed monster of Miles, Mason, and Ryan Kelly can become a force on the offensive glass – if so, Duke will be very, very tough to beat.

The final metric we’ve chosen to track this year is individual player usage percentage. This can be computed using the formula below:

I’ll defer to the master himself when explaining the value of this figure. From Mr. Pomeroy’s blog:

[Usage percentage is] “a measure of personal possessions used while on the court. Simply assigns credit or blame to a player when his actions end a possession, either by missing a shot that isn’t rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. 20% is average, and 25% indicates a go-to guy. 15% is a player with a limited role in the offense. Higher values do not indicate a player is better, merely that he is more involved in the offense.”

This figure should be especially interesting for Duke this year – with a superstar yet to emerge and a number of players who can dominate the ball on any given night. Personally, I’d expect Seth Curry and Austin Rivers to dominate in this category down the stretch, but the distribution has been relatively even for games up until this point.

To provide a visual representation of the stats that we’ve tracked so far, we’ve put together a Motion Chart – which essentially allows you, the readers, to observe how each player has fared in each of these metrics over time. Each color represents a different opponent, and each bubble represents a different player. You can track an individual player’s progress – from Belmont to Davidson – or focus on a single game to see who on the team was most effective and in which areas.

In its default setting, the motion chart projects game score against eFG% – providing a general idea of how well each player played during a given game. The size of the bubble is representative of a player’s usage percentage – thus allowing us to discern how big of an impact a certain player may or may not have had on any given night.

Of course, these parameters can be changed. Feel free to play with the axes and project each of these metrics against one another – it is definitely interesting to look at the statistics and compare the numbers to our own observations of the actual games. We’ll be posting updates to the Motion Chart after every game, and after we have collected a sizeable amount of data, we will have a pretty interesting (and hopefully accurate) measure of how well this team is (and is capable of) playing.

Obviously, the season has just begun, and so has our foray into statistical analysis. If you have any suggestions or ideas for different methods we should check out, feel free to comment here or tweet at us @crazietalker! We would love the feedback and want to make this as informative and awesome as possible.

As always, stay Crazie! We’ll be live-blogging the game this afternoon, so be sure to check us out around 5pm! Go Duke!